2022 MLB Win Total Over/Unders Best Bets
I love holding myself accountable each year by posting my MLB preseason win total over/unders on here. Last year I got 20 of 30 right, which was actually two lower than in 2019 (2020 being pandemic killed of course), and the year before that I won Mark Simon’s Baseball Predictions pool, a fact I made sure to brag about in last year’s over/unders article as well.
This year I’m going to offer some of my best non-win total bets for the 2022 MLB season as well (legal sports book coming to New York has been a blessing and a curse), and I’ll offer confidence levels in these using the “units” parlance of betting, which you can familiarize yourself with here if needed.
Please, please, please never gamble if it feels reckless, isn’t fun, or if the bet is money that would even slightly hurt to lose.
2022 Best Non-Win Total Bets
Brewers to win NL Central -130 Caesar’s: Ten units
This is my biggest bet for a few reasons: I am a full Andrew Friedman Front Office Tree Believer. Every year I feel confident betting the ever-growing number of teams with a front office that has been kissed by the Andrew Friedman trickle down to go above their win total over/under and knowing I’ll hit on more than I miss.
Right now, those teams are: Dodgers, Giants, Rays, Atlanta, Red Sox, Astros, and Brewers. I’m betting the over on all of them this year.
There’s also the fact that the rest of the division is sus as hell. The Cardinals were the third-luckiest team by BaseRuns last year; the Reds made moves that at best leave them lateral to last year; the Cubs are in tank mode; and the Pirates are super fun (which is really just a code for a 90-loss ceiling). As such, the NLC is Milwaukee’s for the picking.
The final part of why this is my only three unit play is because of the cost. Having to pay -130 for a division winner may seem like a lot, but that’s an implied probability of 56.5 percent. Fangraphs currently gives Milwaukee a 71.5 percent chance of winning the division, and like I said, I still think projection systems undersell those Friedman teams who have picked the code of organizational depth. So really you’re paying 56.5 percent implied for an event I’d peg at 75 percent — that’s a steal.
Astros to win the AL West -160 Caesar’s: Eight units
The story is the same here except it’s paying for 61.5 percent implied with Fangraphs putting the number at 72 percent — solid margin again.
Adam Duvall under 109.5 RBI -110 Bet MGM: Five units
Yes, Adam Duvall topped this number last year. No, he will not top it in 2022. If you want to bet on Duvall repeating his career season he had as a 32-year-old, go for it. But The BatX, one of the best projection systems out there, projects Duvall for just 78 (!) RBI in 2022. Now, The BatX is notoriously stingy with its counting stats, but that level of clearance is insane. Buying the under just gives you so many ways to win that this is my best individual player bet.
Ok, now that you have a feel for my process, a selection of the rest of my non-win total over/under bets:
Brewers to make playoffs, YES -240 Bet MGM: Five units (or a touch more to cover that hefty juice if you’re comfortable with it)
Eugenio Suarez u33.5 HR -110 Bet MGM: Three units
Whit Merrifield u181.5 hits -110 Bet MGM: Three units
Phillies to make playoffs, NO +100 DraftKings: Three units
Red Sox to make playoffs, YES -120 DraftKings: Three units
Mariners to make playoffs, NO -209 PointsBet: Three units
Bryce Harper o34.5 HR -110 Bet MGM: Three units
Ronald Acuna u36.5 HR -110 Bet MGM: Three units
Kyle Schwarber o30.5 HR-110 Bet MGM: Three units
David Fletcher u1705. hits -110 Bet MGM: Three units
Ty France u159.5 hits -110 Bet MGM: Three units
Xander Bogaerts o158.5 hits -110 Bet MGM: Three units
Tommy Edman u167.5 hits -110 Bet MGM: Three units
Trea Turner most hits in MLB +1200 Bet MGM: One unit
Brandon Woodruff most pitcher wins in MLB +2500 Bet MGM: One unit
Matt Olson to win HR title +2000 Caesar’s: Half unit
Brewers to win most games in MLB +1500 Caesar’s: Half unit
Red Sox to win the AL East +600 Bet MGM: Half unit
A LOT of those player bets are unders. With a truncated spring training, injuries are going to be even more prevalent than they have become in the sport. If I could find pitching versions of these statistical bets at Bet MGM I almost would’ve just gone down the board and bet under on every single one. Plus, it’s always beneficial to pound those unsexy unders.
Ok, on to the team win total over/unders.
2022 MLB Team Win Total Over/Unders
Arizona Diamondbacks, over 64.5 BetRivers -125: Three units
When this line first came up at BetRivers it was set at 58.5 (!) which I naturally jumped ALL OVER. It also set up a great chance to middle with the other books, as I landed under 66.5 at Caesar’s that same day. Sadly that combo platter is no longer available, but I still like the over at BetRivers, which hasn’t come up to where the rest of the books are on Arizona, a team in a brutal division, but with some perkiness.
Atlanta Baseball Team, over 90.5 Caesar’s -110: No units
Stay away. I’ll go over because of the Friedman Effect, but everything else is telling me to fade the defending World Series champs, so we’ll settle with a stay away.
Baltimore Orioles, over 61.5 Bet Rivers -114: Two units
This was another gem when it came out from Bet Rivers (55.5), but I’d still lean the over. Similar to Arizona with the terrifying division, and there’s less talent, but like I said with the Pirates last year, it’s hard to lose 100 games, and the future is coming for this team and should at least start to arrive this season.
Boston Red Sox over 84.5 Bet Rivers -114: Three units
Sensing a theme here? Bet Rivers came out with some crazy lines, and they still haven’t fully adjusted. This is another Friedman Tree special. I’m high on the Sox this season. (And that’s coming from someone who hates Boston sports more than anything else in the world, so don’t worry on potential bias.)
Chicago Cubs under 75.5 DraftKings -110: No units
Can’t get any feel for this team.
Chicago White Sox under 93.5 FanDuel -116: No units
I realllllly like this White Sox squad, but that’s a high number for a division that I think could surprise some folks this year with its competency.
Cincinnati Reds over 72.5 FanDuel -116: Three units
There’s a binary vision of team building, where teams are either #competing or #tanking. The Rays have shown you can do both at the same time, and I kind of feel like that’s what the Reds did this offseason. The tank narratives are tempting, but this team is still solid in a rough division.
Cleveland Guardians over 75.5 FanDuel -110: No units
My model has Cleveland pegged at 76 wins. FanGraphs has them pegged at 76 wins. Three books have them at 75.5 and three have them at 76.5. Stay alllllllllllllllll the way away from this bet.
Colorado Rockies under 69.5 PointsBet -110: No units
Mayyyyybe a quarter unit if you’re feeling spicy.
Detroit Tigers under 78.5 Caesar’s -110: No units
On the one hand, this young, full of potential team won 77 games last year. But I just don’t see it. Staying away but as a lover of fun, young teams would love to be wrong on this.
Houston Astros over 91.5 DraftKings -110: No units
See: Atlanta
Kansas City Royals over 73.5 -128 FanDuel (or over 74.5 DraftKings -110; someone wiser than myself, tell me which is better): No units
Regardless of where you look, this is a stay away from me. There are a lot of these “no unit” bets in a row, but I can’t emphasize enough that sometimes the right bet is no bet. There are PLENTY of fun preseason bets to make.
Los Angeles Angels under 84.5 -110 Caesar’s: No units
See: Cleveland Guardians
Los Angeles Dodgers over 96.5 -120 Points Bet: Two units
I was going to include a bet above: Dodgers to make the playoffs -1000 at Points Bet as well, but I felt too silly to admit I was willing to make a bet in which you have to spend $100 to win $10, but free money is free money, and that’s what this bet is with the expanded postseason field.
Miami Marlins over 75.5 -112 Bet Rivers: Six units
This is one of my best bets — an over at Bet Rivers, go figure. The Marlins have incredible pitching depth and this season that is going to be more important than ever.
Milwaukee Brewers over 88.5 -115 DraftKings: Three unit
You can tell by now how high I am on the BrewCrew.
Minnesota Twins over 80.5 -110 Caesar’s: Three units
Really liked what this team did in the offseason, and don’t forget they won 101 games in 2019 and were tracking at a 97-win pace in 2020 before an off year last season.
New York Mets under 91.5 -110 FanDuel: No units
Last year fading the Mets was my favorite play. This year I actually like them, just not quiiiiite enough to take the over on this number in a really tough division.
New York Yankees under 92.5 -110 Caesar’s: Five units
I’ve turned my under ire to a different borough this year, and it’s the Yankees that are my best under bet for 2022. This team looks primed for a fourth place finish in the stacked AL East, and I also love betting them to miss the playoffs at an absurd +310 at DraftKings. At least half a unit there too.
Oakland A’s under 70.5 -110 Caesar’s: No units
This one scares me because even though the Baseball Gods should punish them for a true sell-off (what is this, 1915?!) — and they will also likely continue to sell off throughout this season — the A’s also seem like one of those teams to burn everything down and somehow win 75 games still, so I’ll stay away.
Philadelphia Phillies under 86.5 -110 Points Bet: No units
This is and the Yankees are where my model differs the most from FanGraphs, so I’m a little scared, but this team has some of the worst defense the world has ever seen, and they’re never exactly known for depth, so I’ll take a slight lean to the under.
Pittsburgh Pirates over 62.5 -134 Points Bet: Three units
Another crazy opening line at Bet Rivers (59.5, compared to 64.5 at most books), I didn’t even try to middle this one because I just like the Pirates to surprise folks this year.
San Diego Padres under 88.5 Caesar’s -110: No units
See: Cleveland Guardians and Los Angeles Angels
San Francisco Giants over 84.5 -140 Points Bet (or over 85.5 -110 Caesar’s): Three units
I believe.
Seattle Mariners under 84.5 -110 Caesar’s: No units
I don’t believe.
St. Louis Cardinals under 86.5 -130 Bet Rivers: Three units
Covered my skepticism earlier.
Tampa Bay Rays over 89.5 -110 Caesar’s: Two units
Depth, depth, depth. No team does it better than Tampa Bay.
Texas Rangers under 74.5 -110 Caesar’s: No units
See: Detroit Tigers
Toronto Blue Jays under 92.5 -110 Caesar’s: No units
I really, really, really like this team and would love to see Vladito and the boys storm out to a pennant win this season, but this line is just a hair too high for me with multiple Andrew Friedman Front Office Tree (take a shot!) teams in the same division.
Washington Nationals over 70.5 -110 Caesar’s: No units
The pitching is going to be brutal, but the offense is solid enough that I just wanna stay away.
Hope you enjoyed, and feel free to leave your picks below!
