How should we expect Adrian Peterson to age in 2016?

Let’s start off by saying that Adrian Peterson is no ordinary running back. That’s probably not a sentiment that many Viking fans need to be convinced of, but it’s a nice reminder. Last season, as a 30-year-old coming off basically an entire season of rust after being suspended for 15 games in 2014, Peterson ran for 1,485 yards on 327 attempts. Both led the entire NFL. Once again, this man was 30 years old coming off basically an entire season of rust.

Normal comparisons don’t necessarily work for a beast of Peterson’s ilk.

That being said, it wouldn’t be any fun if we didn’t at least try, right?

First things first, the aging curve for NFL running backs isn’t pretty. Once-great running backs can hit brick walls any season after around 27 years old, and often seemingly out of nowhere. Look at Shaun Alexander. In 2005, as a 27-year-old he ran for 1,880 yards and 27 touchdowns. The next two seasons he combined for 1,612 yards and 11 touchdowns, and was out of the league the year after that as a 30-year-old. Or how about Priest Holmes? Or Corey Dillon? Both players ran for over 1,400 yards as 30-year-olds, and didn’t combine to top 1,500 yards individually in their final seasons in the NFL (three for Holmes and two for Dillon). The drop off can happen fast.

So is Peterson in trouble of a similar drop off?

It’s a bit tougher to say.

For one thing, the lost season of 2014 may now seem like a blessing in disguise. It saved a season of wear and tear on Peterson, and allowed the Vikings to get a higher draft pick heading into a strong 2015 season. (Hello, Anthony Barr!)

The extra miles saved on Peterson’s legs are almost undoubtedly of extreme importance, and put him in a better position to age more gracefully than other runnings backs.

Somewhat incredibly, there are only 23 cases in NFL history of running backs in their age-31 or older season running for even 1,000 yards — that’s not exactly a high barrier. If we make the cut off 1,200 yards, there are only 12 such seasons in NFL history, and if we put the cut off at 1,400 there are only four. In NFL history.

For argument’s sake, let’s say that a good season for Peterson will have to run for at least 1,300 yards to appease Viking fans (and that may even be a bit low). There are only six players in NFL history who have run for that many yards after having turned 31, which Peterson did in March. Let’s take a look at those six players briefly. (As a fan of the University of Virginia, I feel the need to point out that two of these guys went to UVA. Wahoo Wah!)

Curtis Martin, Age 31, 1,697 yards and 12 touchdowns on 371 attempts

Martin owns the best season (by yards) for any running back 31 years old or older, absolutely going off in 2004 with one of the best seasons of his career. It was both the highest number of carries as well as yards for Martin in his 11-year career, and he couldn’t even make it through the entire next season. If Peterson had one more great season in 2016 and then was out of the league in 2017, would Viking fans take that?

Tiki Barber, Age 31, 1,662 yards and five touchdowns on 327 attempts

Barber had a pretty strange career, never rushing for more than 1,006 yards in any of his first five seasons, before rushing for more than 1,200 in each of his final five seasons in the league. In his first five seasons, Barber only tallied a total of 629 rushing attempts, which helps to explain his fresh legs in the second half of his career. Peterson had that many carries by the first game of his third season in the NFL. Peterson already has more rushing attempts in his career than Barber ended his career with, so the comparison isn’t great here.

Walter Payton, Age 31, 1,551 yards and nine touchdowns on 324 attempts

Walter Payton, Age 32, 1,333 yards and eight touchdowns on 321 attempts

Payton is the only player to have two seasons of 1,300+ yards after turning 31, and is clearly one of the, if not the, best running backs of all-time. The great news for Viking fans: Payton’s career arc looks mighty similar to Peterson’s. He started about half his games as a rookie, broke out in his second season, missed a couple games here and there but was generally productive each and every season. Payton also showed an ability to handle a heavy load and still be productive into his 30s. He led the league in rushing attempts his four first full seasons in the league, and tallied over 300 attempts in 10 different seasons in his career. Peterson only has four 300+ carry seasons so far, and is nearly 1,500 carries shy of where Payton ended his career. The Payton comparison should gives lots of hope to Viking fans, who already think of Peterson among the best running backs of all-time, and have full faith in his ability to maintain for the foreseeable future.

Thomas Jones, Age 31, 1,402 yards and 14 touchdowns on 331 attempts

Jones had a similar career arc to Barber in that he never ran for more than 1,000 yards in any of his first five seasons before topping 1,100 yards in each of his next five seasons. This type of player really is not a comp for Peterson, as Peterson nearly already has the career total rushing attempts that Jones retired with.

John Riggins, Age 34, 1,347 yards and 24 touchdowns on 375 attempts

For the truly pie-eyed Viking fans, here’s a 34-year-old running back who ran for over 1,300 yards and 24 (!) touchdowns. Peterson 2019, baby! But in all seriousness, we’ll tackle Riggins if Peterson’s NFL career is still alive and kicking after three more seasons.

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The overall numbers are certainly stacked against Peterson, but as seen above, it certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibility. Comparing Peterson to Walter Payton more seem sacrilege, but Peterson is putting together one of the strongest careers for an NFL running back, and at some point he needs to be compared to the legends.

Consider me in the camp that believes in Peterson for 2016 (although not much after that, notice that only two of those seasons came after the age of 31). A revamped offensive line and more weapons on offense should take a bit of pressure off Peterson, allowing him to stay fresh and healthy throughout the 2016 season. Put me down for 1,370 yards and nine touchdowns this year for AD.