Looking closer at three surprising 2016 Premier League teams
We are just five weeks into the Premier League season, but for the most part, the table already looks relatively like what we might have expected coming into the season. Manchester City is at the top of the table, Sunderland is already fighting the relegation fight, and Crystal Palace is right in the middle of the pack.
There have, however, been some surprises. We’re not talking about Leicester sitting in 11th, I think we all saw a bit of a fallback coming for them this season. And while Hull City won their first two matches, they have come back to earth already, taking one point from their last three.
The real surprises have come in the form of three teams: Everton, West Ham, and Stoke. Everton are currently sitting second to City in the table, and have won four games on the trot since an opening match draw with Spurs. West Ham and Stoke are on the other side of surprise. The two squads both sit in the dreaded bottom three at the moment, with West Ham with one win and four losses, while Stoke has a single, measly point to show for their first five matches of the 2016–17 season.
So is Everton really going to be challenging for a Champions League spot come May? Will West Ham and Stoke be battling with Sunderland to avoid the drop on Matchday 38? Let’s take a closer look at each team individually. The first thing to look at this early in the season is schedule. Has the team had a tough draw in their first couple weeks? Or have they been feasting on a bunch of bottom-feeders? Have they had to play four of five games on the road? Or have they been in their own friendly confines three of their first five?
The next thing to look at is goal differential. Goal differential stabilizes far better win and loss record, so if we’re trying to look forward, using goal differential is a better tell than wins and losses and draws. (One crazy thing about the Premier League right now is that the actual table is in the exact order of goal differential top to bottom.)
Finally, we’ll take a glance at some statistics, possession and shots per game, to see if we can learn anything there. On to the teams:
Everton
Opponents: Tottenham (D), West Brom Albion (W), Stoke (W), Sunderland (W), Middlesbrough (W)
Right off the bat, there should be some minor alarm bells here. Spurs are the only team of true quality that Everton have faced so far, and that was the only game they didn’t win. West Brom has had a decent start to the campaign, but they are a far cry from the teams Everton will have to beat in order to hang with the Big Six for a Champions League spot. The good news for the Toffees is that is doesn’t get harder either of the next two weeks, as they face Bournemouth (17th) this weekend, before a home draw against Crystal Palace (8th). Here’s the thing, the next real test comes on October 15th at the Etihad, when they take on league leaders, City. If Everton can win these next two matches, they’ll be flying high in terms of confidence, something that can’t be overstated enough. Everton won’t care if they have beaten up on poor teams, points are points. And beating the lower tier teams in no longer a given in the modern Premier League — it’s a skill. So I would ding Everton slightly for an easy schedule so far, but let’s not overdo that.
Goal Differential: +7
Building off that last point, the Toffees haven’t just been winning 1–0 matches over these lower teams, they are winning rather handily. They defeated Sunderland 3–0 and Middlesbrough 3–1 in their last two outings. Their goal differential of +7 is second in the entire Premier League, helping to justify their lofty place in the table. Romelu Lukaku has shown no signs of slowing down this season, as he already has four goals, and new manager, Ronald Koeman, is getting the most from a talented roster right now.
Statistics: 55% possession (6th); 15.4 shots per game (7th)
In terms of keeping the ball, and creating chances when they have the ball, Everton are not quite as lofty as their win-loss and goal differential might suggest. And, honestly, this seems a little closer to where Everton will end up. The Toffees may well end up hanging around the fringe of the top four for a while this season, and may well top projections that had them middle of the table, but 6th or 7th still sounds a lot more likely until we see them topple some of the big boys.
West Ham
Opponents: Chelsea (L), Bournemouth (W), Manchester City (L), Watford (L), West Brom Albion (L)
Now that’s a tough schedule. Through three games, even West Ham supporters couldn’t be too disappointed with losses against Chelsea and City, two of the giants of the Premier League. They won the game they needed to in the middle, albeit by a 1–0 final, but the two recent ties are what have the Hammers nervous. Watford (9th) and West Brom (10th) have both been pleasant surprises this season, but if West Ham wants to finish in the top seven, like they did last season, those are the type of matches that you need at least a point, and likely all three. The way West Ham lost both is disappointing, as well, as the Hammers led Watford 2–0, and then proceeded to give up the final four goals of that game before giving up the first four goals of the West Brom game, meaning they allowed eight consecutive goals in just over 100 minutes on the pitch. That’s about as heinous as it gets.
The good news for West Ham is that their Premier League schedule lightens up a little bit now. They have Southampton (14th) and Middlesbrough (13th) at home before traveling to Crystal Palace (8th) and then coming home again for Sunderland (19th). If they can get nine points out of those three matches, a highly reasonable request, they should be clear of the drop zone by late October.
Goal Differential: -6
We noted the eight goals in a row that West Ham allowed recently, and those pretty much cinch up the second-worst goal differential in the Premier League. The thing to see with this team is whether they can bounce back from those recent losses and not just bury their head in the sand. The two second half goals in the West Brom game is a good sign, and should give them at least a little bit of confidence.
Statistics: 49.9% possession (11th); 14.8 shots per game (8th)
Once again, the stats tell a story much closer to where I think the team will end up than the early-season wins and losses record. The brutal Europa League schedule means West Ham probably won’t be lingering around the top seven this season, but they have too much talent (Dimitri Payet is once again showing that the last couple years have been no fluke) to be fearing the drop come May. Mid-table seems right for the Hammers in 2016–17.
Stoke
Schedule: Middlesbrough (D); Manchester City (L); Everton (L); Tottenham (L); Crystal Palace (L)
OK I lied. That is a brutal schedule. After their draw with Middlesbrough, Stoke have faced the top three sides in the Premier League, and then an eighth-place Palace squad. That being said, expectations were high for Stoke before the season, and if you want to be challenging for a spot in Europe, you have to beat teams like Middlesbrough and Palace, and at least challenge the top teams in the league. Stoke has not done that.
Goal Differential: -11
We’re jumping over to goal differential quicker because it really tells the more complete story right now. Losses to City and Spurs aren’t killers in the grand scheme of things, but giving up four or more goals in three of your five matches to start a season (Palace hit them for four, as well) is mighty troubling. It gets worse when looking at the end of the 2015–16 season, as Stoke has now allowed four or more goals in six of their last 11 Premier League matches — that’s scary. The attack was supposed to be the strength of Stoke this season, but no team can avoid the drop giving up four goals every other game.
Statistics: 46.8% possession (16th); 11.0 shots per game (14th)
About that Stoke attack. As noted, it was supposed to be a strength this season, and with names like Xherdan Shaqiri, Bojan, and Joe Allen, it’s easy to see why. But the Stoke attack has really stalled out so far. As seen above, the stats are much more damning for Stoke than West Ham, and when combined with the fact that they don’t have a single goal from the run of play in the 2016–17, that’s disturbing. Before a Marco Arnautovic tally in the fourth minute of added time in their most recent match (while trailing 4–0), Stoke had just two goals on the season, one on a penalty and one on a free kick. Not a single build up had led to a goal, and that is clearly not going to cut it.
Before the season I picked Stoke to be my sleeper, lingering around the Champions League, and finishing fifth. I’m pumping the brakes big time right now. I don’t think they’ll be playing Championship football next season, but it’s hard to imagine them in the top half of the table right now.
