NBA Player Preview: Pacific Division

The NBA season is finally here! And with it the final look at one player (breakout or statistical darling) from each team across the league. We finish with the four California teams and the Suns.

Golden State Warriors

Draymond Green (The Icarus of the NBA)

It’s hard to find a player more scrutinized, on a team more scrutinized than the former 35th overall pick of the 2012 Draft. It’s all with good reason though. Of all the amazing talent in the NBA, no player had a better net rating in 2016 than Green. In fact, in the 20 seasons NBA.com has available, no player who has played at least half his team’s games has ever matched the 18.9 net rating Green had last season. Of course, a large part of that was due to the record-breaking season of the Warriors, as a team, but as everyone knows, Green opens up another level for the Warriors when they go small ball with Green as the big man. Their Lineup of Death has been supercharged with Kevin Durant, but it relies heavily on Green being able to lock up opposing bigs, no easy feat for multiple years for the 6’ 7” forward. No one is going to go harder than Green, but the wear-and-tear may well show itself this season. Last year Green and the Warriors flew as close to the sun as they could, and it may well have burned them in the middle of the Finals when Green’s sack tap of LeBron was the straw that broke the league’s back, ending in a suspension that helped swing the Finals.

But we all know this. What we don’t know is whether Green and the Dubs will be able to erase those ghosts in 2016–17. There are hot takes, and hot takes against the hot takes, and hot takes against the hot takes of the hot takes when it comes to Green, so I’ll just keep it simple here. Green is the single most important player to the Warriors. Bar none.

Los Angeles Clippers

JJ Redick (Statistical Darling)

The Clippers are full of statistical darlings. Led by Chris Paul, arguably the ultimate “If you just look at the advanced metrics, he’s one of the all-time legends” player, the Clippers run deep with guys that make the pointy-headed basketball fans go crazy. DeAndre Jordan was 15th in ESPN’s real plus-minus last season, and top seven when just looking at defense.

When looking for breakouts, as weird as it may be to say, based on how his star has lost some of its shine in the past six months, it may even be fair to consider Blake Griffin one of the ultimate breakout candidates for 2016–17. When healthy, Griffin is arguably a top-five talent in the league, something he has never gotten credit for. Even their fifth starter, Luc Mbah a Moute, has long been a player who the under-the-surface stats liked more than points and rebounds did.

With all those toys, it’s easy for Clippers fans to forget Redick, but that would be foolish. No player on the team (min. five games played) had a better net rating than Redick, this coming one season after coming in third in net rating on the team, and two years removed from sixth on the team. As a 32-year-old, the part-time podcaster is only getting better, a testament to Redick’s hard-working nature. Long thought of as just a gunner, Redick has made vast strides on defense, and last season perfected his offensive art, hitting a career-high 47.5 percent of said long balls. The Clipper offense, when it’s humming, is one of the prettiest in the NBA, and Redick is an essential cog in that offense.

Los Angeles Lakers

Julius Randle (Breakout)

D’Angelo Russell is the easy choice for a breakout in 2016–17, and Brandon Ingram may well be the Face of the Franchise sooner than later, but if the Lakers have any hope of lingering around the playoff picture this season, it will have to be Randle who has a standout season. If you can remember all the way back to the 2014 draft, Randle was the seventh overall pick, but broke his leg in the first game of the Lakers 2014–15 season, a pretty good metaphor for the season as a whole in L.A. Last season, Randle quietly came back and actually put up some really strong numbers for L.A., averaging 11.3 points and 10.2 rebounds while many teammates got caught up in the Kobe-palooza. The dude knows how to hit the boards, and if his start to 2016–17 is to be trusted through one game (which it shouldn’t, but just for shits), the gains he made in assists per game in the second half may continue. Randle posted 18 points, seven rebounds, and six assists in the Lakers win over the Rockets Wednesday, adding in a block for good measure. NBA-Reference likes Randle to average 14.8 points and 12.9 rebounds a game this season, and while those numbers might surprise a lot of folks, they may even be low. (The points at least.) Luke Walton has said he wants Randle to be an essential part of this offense, and there should be missed shots a plenty to clean up all season. The Laker core is young and fun with Kobe gone, and Randle is one who can slip a bit under-the-radar sometimes, even in L.A.

Phoenix Suns

Devin Booker (Breakout)

Yes, I understand. Booker is literally everyone’s breakout pick around the league. I get it. You don’t want to read about it again. Well, too bad. I could get cute and pick T.J. Warren as a deep cut breakout pick, or tell you that the Suns were only 6.1 points worse than their opponents in the second half when P.J. Tucker was on the court (how exciting!), but that’s overthinking it. Booker averaged 19.2 points a game after the All-Star Break, a figure only topped by the Timberwolves pair (KAT and Wiggins) among players 24 years old or younger. And Booker did it as a 19-year-old, younger than both of the Timberpups. Granted it was just a half season, but here’s a list of 19-year-olds who have ever averaged over 19.0 points a game: Carmelo Anthony, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant. Yeah, that’s decent company to be in. Booker went 8-for-12 from the field for 18 points in his season debut, and didn’t even need a three-pointer to do so. We’ll keep this short: Watch out.

Sacramento Kings

Willie Cauley-Stein/Skal Labissiere (Breakout)

Last year Boogie Cousins led the Kings in ESPN’s real plus-minus at 4.83. Next highest on the team was Omri Casspi at 0.96. I say this not to point how Casspi weirdly remains relevant in 2015–16, but that there is definite room for a #2 in Sacramento. Cousins has been doing a lot of heavy lifting for the Kings since being taken by the snake-bitten franchise six years ago. Now picking a fellow big man might seem counterintuitive, but when has anything in Sacramento made sense. Willie Trill and Skal offer the highest ceilings of any of the young Kings players, with Skal being a particular favorite of mine. WCS might make more sense as a fit next to Boogie on the surface (doesn’t take many shots, can provide defensive cover), but Skal could fill that role as well. Labissiere has the range to allow Cousins to operate in the paint, and is no defensive slouch himself. Now granted, Cauley-Stein is coming off the bench for the Kings, and Skal didn’t even play in their first game, but if the Kings want to avoid hitting the reset button, one of these guys is going to have to breakout out this season, so they might as well throw them into the fire.