Quick hit 2021 MLB over/unders
Ok, honestly, I’m mostly putting these here for posterity, so we don’t need to do a long introduction. I’ll go team by team, taking an over or an under available on either DraftKings or FanDuel and make a quick little quip for my reasoning. Feel free to follow or not follow these picks, I’ve had a pretty solid success rate in recent seasons (22–8 in 2019; winner of ESPN stats and info personality Mark Simon’s pick em pool in 2018), but I would never suggest anyone to really take advice on what is basically a slightly loaded coin flip. It’s more just fun to write it all out.
Odds from DraftKings unless noted otherwise.
Arizona Diamondbacks — 74.5 wins: Under. Honestly, this is a stay-away for me. I have them pegged for 74 wins, so it’s tight as can be, and the Dbacks seem to overperform when they have low expectations and underperform when they have high expectations.
Atlanta Baseball Team — 91.5 wins: Under. This is another tight one for me and only a barely under. I like them to win the division and have been allocating some capitol on them winning more games than the Mets, but I have them at 90 wins.
Baltimore Orioles — 63.5 wins (FanDuel): *Over*. Here’s our first recommended bet. It may seem wild to take the over on Baltimore but there’s actually some talent here, and the only fear is the division. I’m not in the mode of weighing 2020 too heavily, but they were nearly a .500 team by pythag. Clearing the 63.5 win bar should be not too much of a challenge, and I actually have them down for 72 wins.
Boston Red Sox — 79.5 wins (FanDuel): Over. Slight over, and a really scary bet. Their season could go 100 different ways.
Chicago Cubs — 78.5 wins: Over. This one strikes me as odd. Their pytah win percentage hasn’t dropped below .545 in the past six years, and it’s not as if they have actually begun the teardown that is perpetually rumored. But this one also smells like “Vegas knows more than I do,” so while I’m pegging them for 84 wins, I don’t have the confidence to back it with any money.
Chicago White Sox — 91.5 wins: Under. This one scares me a bit, too. The White Sox were every bit the .600 ball club they appeared to be last season, but bringing in Tony La Russa, and the potential for a bit of regression to the mean scares me off from taking the over, but not enough to actually bet it.
Cincinnati Reds — 82.5 wins: Under. Stay away.
Cleveland Baseball Team — 81.5 wins: Under. Cleveland began their teardown last season and were still a 94-win true talent team… Which is why I’m not recommending betting the under, just saying that I have them under by a win or two. Don’t worry, we’re coming up to the run of recommended plays in a little bit.
Colorado Rockies — 63.5 wins: Under. If any semblance of Karma exists, this will be a hard under. but losing 100 games is a mighty tall task.
Detroit Tigers — 68.5 wins: Under. In three years this team will actually be decent, and this could be the year they start to be fun-bad, but I still think they’ll be bad, and I like the other cellar team in the ALC a lot more.
Houston Astros — 87.5 wins: Under. Similar to Atlanta, I like Houston to win the division, and I have their projected win total riiiight around where Vegas does, but a hair below. I wouldn’t bet this line either way though.
Kansas City Royals — 72.5 wins: *Over*. Ok, here we go. Another recommended play. Don’t look now, but the Royals roster is actually pretty solid. This team is honestly going to be the test case for “what if you have a roster where everyone is just solidly average.” There are no stars, but there really aren’t that many pain points either. I have them at 78 wins, so this is an easy over for me.
Los Angeles Angels — 83.5 wins: Under. I will never not be angry with Mike Trout for signing an extension with this clown org.
Los Angeles Dodgers — 102.5 wins: *Over*. Yes, I know. It’s wild to take the over on a team projected for 102.5 wins. But they have either won (or been on pace to win in 2020) 104 games three of the last four seasons. Here’s an insane stat: Over the last four seasons, their pythagorean winning percentage is that of a 105-win team. THAT’S INSANE! And this team has gotten better — and more importantly, deeper — each and every offseason. I have them down for 110 wins this year… that’s not a typo.
Miami Marlins — 71.5 wins: Under. I get the Marlins buzz. I like it. Their pitching is always going to keep them in games, and I don’t have them drastically under, but I’d stay away from this line with a slight under if pressed.
Milwaukee Brewers — 82 wins (FanDuel): Over. This is basically a perfect line. Stay away.
Minnesota Twins — 88.5 wins: Over. I originally had this as a recommended play, but I got cold feet at the last second. I still feel good about the over, but not enough to recommend. This is a better team and more legitimate org than you probably realize though.
New York Mets — 91 wins (FanDuel): *Under*. This is my zag play. Everyone is suuuuuper high on the Mets this year and I just don’t see it. I see a terrible defense, a shallow rotation, and a really tough division. I’m shorting the Mets any and every way I can because the market is doing the exact opposite.
New York Yankees — 95.5 wins: Under. I’m out on the NY teams! No, I do think the Yankees will win the AL East, but I think it’ll be close, and similar to their cross-borough rivals, I think it’s rotational depth that scares me the most. This season won’t be quite as hectic as 2020, but I do think it will test depth, especially pitching depth, more than the average season.
Oakland A’s — 86.5 wins: Under. I usually like Oakland as one of the teams that the amrket doesn’t respect enough, and I’m not super under on their line (I have them at 85 wins), but this is a team that lost their best pitcher and position player from the last full season of baseball in Liam Hendricks and Marcus Semien. I don’t totally buy the replacement they’ve brought in, which is why I’m a slight under.
Philadelphia Phillies — 81.5 wins (FanDuel): Under. This team seems destined for 81–81.
Pittsburgh Pirates — 58.5 wins: Over. It’s reallllly hard to lose 104 games. Think about it. That’s being as bad as the Dodgers are good (obviously it doesn’t work quite that way, but the point remains).
San Diego Padres — 94.5 wins: Under. This is a super fun, young team that went for it this offseason. I don’t think they’ll be much below 94, but they took a massive leap last season, and I’m always nervous of a slight pull back for teams like that. There’s also the fact that they have to play the Dodgers 19 times, and I’ll say 92 wins for San Diego.
San Francisco Giants — 75 wins (FanDuel): *Over*. This is my weirdest play. I don’t know if anyone reading this article follows European soccer closely enough to get this reference, but the Giants remind me of Real Sociedad in La Liga. It’s a collection of misfits toys, but one that kind of works. I see them as Royals West, with a very balanced roster with no holes and no stars. And similar to K.C. I think that will help them approach .500. And counteracting the two stud teams in their division, they have two teams likely below them to collect wins against.
Seattle Mariners — 72.5 wins: Over. Your favorite baseball writer’s second favorite team for the next few years, I feel like. They’re young, weird, and filled with some high-ceiling talent. I also think the AL West is an abomination this year, and Seattle should be helped by an easy schedule.
St. Louis Cardinals — 86 wins (FanDuel): *Over*. I’m super high on the Cardinals this year. I really like a long-shot play on them to win the World Series (+2500), and if you can find decent odds on them winning the NL Central, that’s a good bet. This defense is going to be crazy good and it’s paired with a deep rotation on pitchers who just let opposing players get themselves out. Basically, they’re the inverse of the Mets, and I dig that.
Tampa Bay Rays — 85.5 wins: Over. As a Rays fan, I hated lots of parts of this offseason. Even still, they have more organizational depth (especially on the pitching side) than any other team in baseball, and I trust them to thrive in the chaos that is the 2020–2021 stretch of Covid-affected baseball. I don’t think it’s a surprise at all that the won their second pennant in the weirdest year of baseball history. This will be another strange season, and that bodes well for Tampa Bay.
Texas Rangers — 67.5 wins (FanDuel): *Under*. To me, this is the worst team in baseball. I don’t know if they’ll lose the 101 games I have them pegged for, but they only need to lose 95 to clinch this bet. The only worry is the divisional weakness.
Toronto Blue Jays — 86.5 wins: Under. This is another zag, ala the Mets. The Jays are a trendy team, and they certainly have a fun offense. But, say it with me: They have very poor starting depth. I actually like what they did in the bullpen, and it’s not a heavy under for me, but I see them at 84 wins, not 87+.
Washington Nationals — 84.5 wins: Under. The ultimate stay away. Never bet on this team.
