Starting IX Newsletter: “To Hall or not to Hall”; the best decade for baseball talent; and baseball barroom debates
For those unfamiliar with the set-up — welcome! Here’s the scoop. Otherwise, let’s dive right in.
“One Final Imagination of the Baseball Hall of Fame” Pre-excerpts: To Hall or not to Hall
This week the BBWAA managed to not elect a single member to the Baseball Hall of Fame class of 2021. Ughhhhh. Oh well, it’s hardly the first time the writers have let us down. Here’s an excerpt from a super fun portion of OFIBHOF (the fourth floor) where I take one player who is in the Hall of Fame, and one player who currently isn’t, and I compare the two to determine who is actually worthy of the plaque.
Scott Rolen vs. Jimmy Collins
Why the two were paired: One of the closest fourth-floor comps.
Brief statistical comparison:
Despite having played almost exactly a century apart (Rolen debuted in 1996; Collins debuted in 1895), these two men have remarkably similar profiles. They were both defense-first third baseman who could also bring some heat with the stick and captured exactly one championship during their playing days. The difference in Rolen’s power numbers are due almost entirely to the era in which each played, and that same difference explains Collins’ advantage in steals and batting average. Rolen’s bat holds up a little better when placed in the vacuum of OPS+ but not by enough to be a signed-and-sealed victory for Rolen, especially when the gap in years played was so vast. Same with defense, Rolen has the dWAR edge but that comes from playing a couple hundred more games (season schedules are much longer in the modern era), and both had a sparkling defensive reputation.
Brief anecdotal comparison: Speaking of which, Collins is credited with revolutionizing the way third baseman handled bunts. The art of the bunt was far more common in Collins’ era, and the 5’ 9” righty gained a bit of a reputation for handling those far better than his peers. In fact, this handling of bunts was, believe it or not, an integral part of his resume when folks were making the push for Collins to be elected to the OBHOF. There was an actual article in The Sporting News in 1943 entitled, “Late Jimmy Collins, the ‘King of Third Sackers,’ Became Hot Corner Star by Ability to Handle Bunts.”
For his part, Rolen had the support of his elders, with Mike Schmidt going on record as saying Rolen was better than he was. This is an incredibly rare stance for ex-players to make, but it is an endearing one, and one that more of them should lean in to. If anything, it makes me want to push back against Schmidt and say actually, Mike, you were an effing hell of a ball player, instead of most of the nonsense ex-ball players say which just makes them seem bitter and completely out of touch.
Who is actually in the OBHOF: Not surprisingly, it is the older player whose OBHOF push resulted in a plaque in Cooperstown, with Jimmy Collins having been elected in 1945 by the Old Timers Committee.
Personal winner: I don’t have as much of a qualm with this decision as I do with a few others, but I do think Rolen is slightly the more deserving of the two. While you can make the case Collins did help to defensively revolutionize the position (although some SABR debunkers have taken a chunk out of that idea), Rolen’s numbers are better across the board, and he undoubtedly played in a tougher era (integration, better scouting, etc.). Overall, though, I’m not getting up in arms about this decision.
Waite Hoyt vs. Jim Kaat
Why the two were paired: The pitching equivalent to what we just saw — the closest pitching comp.
Brief statistical comparison:
A pair of pitchers who lasted over 20 years in the game, longevity was a key to both of these pitchers’ legacies. Kaat lasted especially long, with his 25 years as a pitcher trailing only Nolan Ryan and Tommy John in baseball history. Those four extra years help explain the gap between the two pitchers in old school wins, and it is interesting to note that despite Kaat pitching nearly two full generations after Hoyt, both pitchers’ ERA and ERA+ figures are relatively tight. Hoyt has the slightly worse ERA and slightly better ERA+, which makes sense given he pitched during the offensive boom of the 1920s.
It’s worth noting that Kaat was an incredible defensive pitcher. While that may not be the most valuable of traits, it does mean his overall WAR value (just his pitching WAR which is listed above) is much closer to Hoyt, coming in at 51.8–50.7, in favor of Waite, when all parts of the game are considered.
Brief anecdotal comparison: The most notable difference between the two men comes in their postseason numbers. Hoyt was a staple of the Ruth-Gehrig era Yankees, so unsurprisingly he got a lot of time in the sport’s biggest spotlight. And he made the damn most of it. His 83.2 innings in the World Series (there were no Division or Championship Series in Hoyt’s day) rank fifth all-time, and of the top ten on that list, only Christy Mathewson, arguably a top-five pitcher all-time, has a lower ERA. His six World Series wins rank top five all-time, and his 27.0 scoreless innings (two complete game shutout victories among them) in the 1921 World Series are among the top pitching performances in the Fall Classic in baseball history. Also, his nickname was “The Merry Mortician.”
Who is actually in the OBHOF: It is indeed “The Merry Mortician,” Waite Hoyt, who has a plaque in Cooperstown.
Personal winner: This time I think they got it right (not that it was a Hoyt vs. Kaat binary decision, just speaking broadly). Hoyt’s role on those Murderers Row Yankees was essential, and although Kaat pitched 25 very good seasons (including a two-year stretch with the White Sox when he was worth 14.9 WAR), his 16 Gold Gloves are probably a bit flashier than their actual value added, and the fact that in 16 of his 25 seasons (including his final nine, consecutively) he was actually below average by wins above average, give the edge to Waite Hoyt.
Dennis Martinez vs. Red Ruffing
Why the two were paired: Because if you swap the teams the two played for, things get a lot more interesting.
Brief statistical comparison:
Two big categories jump out here: Best MVP finish and Rings. I tend to favor categories like Cy Young (which didn’t exist in Ruffing’s era) and MVP finishes because knowing just how dominant a pitcher was thought to be can be quite telling. Ruffing stands out here for a fourth place finish (and a fifth-place finish the next season), while Martinez aka “El Presdidente” only once cracked the top 20. As for rings, it’s not even close — Ruffing wins in a landslide.
However, how much of this was truly Ruffing’s doing. Sure, he posted some outstanding numbers in those World Series games he made it to, but if you slotted Martinez on to the late 1930s Yankees, would he not have six rings of his own to wave around? Martinez was an excellent pitcher in big moments, sporting his own nice playoffs numbers, and for his career, in situations defined as “late and close” by Baseball-Reference, he allowed a slash line of just .250/.301/.369, eight percent better than his overall production allowed.
It’s probably not ground-breaking to note that history favors the memory of the pitcher who was on the dynasty rather than the pitcher cursed to pitch for the Baltimore Orioles and Montreal Expos, but it’s certainly something HoF voters didn’t often seem to consider. Because outside of the circumstances under which each played plied his trade, the two are mighty equal. (Though it’s worth noting Ruffing pitched in an era when men who looked like Martinez were not even allowed in the sport…)
Brief anecdotal comparison: Although we just did our best to plant the seeds of doubt as to Ruffing’s superiority, it is worth noting that, by offensive wins above replacement (which were not included at all in the table above), Ruffing is the most valuable pitcher of all time. His .269/.306/.389 slash line in over 2,000 plate appearances gave him an impressive 13.5 WAR added on to the 55.2 pitching WAR listed above, and it’s likely a leading factor in why…
Who is actually in the OBHOF: It is indeed Red Ruffing who is in Cooperstown, and…
Personal winner: That’s the right answer. Martinez is certainly undersold historically, partially because of the mediocre teams he played for, partially because of the era in which he played, and partially because of his skin color (if you don’t think that’s true, send him up against Jack Morris in your next simulated player comp), but Red Ruffing was the better overall ball player.
OOTP Year-by-Year Re-Simulation: 1911
We continue our trek through re-simulating each season in baseball history using Out of the Park Baseball 21, the most realistic baseball simulation game on the market.
MVP: Honus Wagner and Eddie Collins
Cy Young: Pete Alexander and Ed Walsh
Four absolute gods of the game. In fact, this quartet got me thinking — which decade had the most talent/star power in the sport’s history? Now those are two very different questions, that of talent and that of star power, with both being a bit nebulous in definition as well. However, I had a fun time trying to figure this out, so here goes.
I started by going through players with at least 100 career rWAR and slotting them into the decade in which they were at their peak (for most this was easy; for a few much more challenging). Here are the results:
1880s: 0
1890s: 2 — Cy Young and Kid Nichols
1900s: 3 — Honus Wagner, Nap Lajoie, and Christy Mathewson
1910s: 5 — Walter Johnson, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Eddie Collins, and Pete Alexander
1920s: 2 — Babe Ruth and Rogers Hornsby
1930s: 3 — Lou Gehrig, Mel Ott, and Lefty Grove
1940s: 2 — Stan Musial and Ted Williams
1950s: 2 — Mickey Mantle and Warren Spahn
1960s: 3 — Willie Mays, Henry Aaron, and Frank Robinson
1970s: 2 — Tom Seaver and Joe Morgan
1980s: 2 — Rickey Henderson and Mike Schmidt
1990s: 2 — Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux
2000s: 4 — Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Randy Johnson, and Albert Pujols
2010s: 0
By this metric, it is indeed the 1910s that come out on top with their impressive quintet (several of whom inspired this section). It’s also worth noting that of the six players without at least 150 career rWAR, the only decade with more than one such player’s peak was again the 1910s, with Walter Johnson and Ty Cobb (the other four are Cy Young in the 1890s, Babe Ruth in the 1920s, Willie Mays in the 1960s, and Barry Bonds in the 2000s).
Now WAR is not the only metric. I also wanted to pin down star power, and for that I scrolled through the rest of baseball history to do my best to capture any player I thought qualified by this admittedly very ineffable and potentially biased choosing of my own. But I came back with 42 more players without whom baseball history would be wildly incomplete. Here’s the decade breakdown this time:
1880s: 1 — Cap Anson (unfortunately)
1890s: 0
1900s: 1 — Rube Foster
1910s: 2 — Pop Lloyd and Cristobal Torriente
1920s: 1 — Oscar Charleston
1930s: 5 — Jimmie Foxx, Hank Greenberg, Cool Papa Bell, Satchel Paige, and Josh Gibson
1940s: 3 — Joe DiMaggio, Bob Feller, and Jackie Robinson
1950s: 4 — Duke Snider, Yogi Berra, Ernie Banks, and Roy Campanella
1960s: 6 — Carl Yastrzemski, Roberto Clemente, Bob Gibson, Brooks Robinson, Willie McCovey, and Sandy Koufax
1970s: 4 — Steve Carlton, Nolan Ryan, Pete Rose, and Jim Palmer
1980s: 3 — Cal Ripken Jr., George Brett, and Ozzie Smith
1990s: 5 — Pedro Martinez, Ken Griffey Jr., Tony Gwynn, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa
2000s: 4 — Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki, Mariano Rivera, and David Ortiz
2010s: 4 — Mike Trout, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Mookie Betts
Here we see the numbers start to skew more recent, and while that would be easy to write off as simply my bias for knowing modern baseball history better (which I don’t think is actually true, to be honest), I think the answer is simple, and also explains the glut of 100+ WAR players from early baseball history: There are simply more teams and bigger rosters as we go through baseball history. There’s also more talent, that has brought the baseline replacement level up as the years have gone by.
In the end, the best way may be to combine the two metrics used above. If so, here are the top decades:
- 1960 s — nine total
- 1930s and 2000s — eight total;
- 1990s and 1910s — seven total
So, the 1910s are certainly in the mix, but it’s actually a pretty close race across all the decades.
Crazy Stats
Shoeless Joe Jackson: .414 BA
Ty Cobb: .408 BA
Honus Wagner: 13.6 WAR
Eddie Collins: 12.3 WAR
Josh Devore: 67 times caught stealing
Ed Walsh: 1.51 ERA; 10.8 fWAR; 13.4 rWAR; 36 quality starts
Back to the matter at hand of re-simming baseball history using OOTP 21: Two of the numbers above really stand out to me: 67 times caught stealing and 36 quality starts. While batting .400, sporting a 1.51 ERA, or being worth 13+ wins is an impressive feat, it’s just wild to think about those first two numbers in the context of the modern game.
For comparison’s sake, Aldaberto Mondesi led all of baseball last year in terms of times being caught stealing… with EIGHT! Can you imagine the manager’s reaction to a player getting caught stealing even half as many times as Devore in this re-sim — incredible.
And as for the quality starts, the last time a starting pitcher even made 36 starts in a single season was in 2003, so yeah, you can go ahead and forget about that number for quality starts in 2020 lol.
American League pennant winners: Philadelphia Athletics
National League pennant winners: Chicago Cubs
World Series: Athletics 4, Cubs 1
A three-peat! The Connie Mack, “White Elephant” Athletics become the first team in our OOTP sim to accomplish the feat, and with their big roster tear down not coming until 1915, the sky is the limit for this club over the next three seasons. While we’re still a few seasons away, the 1949–1953 Yankees hold the record for consecutive World Series won in the real world, so that’s something to keep an eye on as our simulated history continues onward.
The Cubs, for their part, grabbed their fifth pennant in the past six years of our sim — a very impressive stretch. The team trailed the Honus Wagner-led Pirates for literally the entire 1911 re-sim season, only to catch them on the final day of the season and win the one-game playoff to determine the NL pennant winner.
In the World Series itself, the A’s held serve with a pair of home wins to start the series, but it was Game 3 that was the pivot point. Back at home, the Cubs held a 2–1 lead heading into the top of the eighth, when A’s leadoff hitter Jack Barry tied things up off Cubs starter, Three-Finger Mordecai Brown. Then, in the ninth, with the game tied, 2–2, the Cubs decided to leave Brown in, and that decision did not pay off. Left fielder Bris Lord (an absolute all-time name, especially for our Jewish readers) hit a bases-clearing triple to put the A’s up 5–2 in the game, which Harry Krause closed out in the bottom half of the frame to take the 3–0 series lead.
The Cubs did win Game 4 at home, but the Athletics closed the series out in Chicago in Game 5 with a three-run home run from right fielder Danny Murphy in the top of the 14th to sink the Cubs.
“Starting IX” Excerpt: Baseball debate prompts
For this week’s “Starting IX” excerpt, we’ll giving y’all a metric butt ton of baseball conversations starters. Feel free to weigh in on any and all in the comments. This was part of the Cincinnati Reds team intro in the book itself, but here it will be presented without comment:
** Will WAR still be a stat we use in 2050?
** What’s the best rivalry in baseball?
** Who had a better moustache — Rollie Fingers or Goose Gossage? For that matter, who had the funnier name of the two?
** Is the shift good or bad for baseball?
** Who is the true single-season home run king?
** Will we ever see a left-handed catcher again?
** Is Yasiel Puig good for the game or bad for the game? [This was slightly more relevant in 2016…]
** Fenway or Wrigley?
** Is it harder to throw a major league level curveball or hit a major league level curveball?
** Could you be a league-average second baseman, strictly from a defensive perspective? (The answer is clearly no, but this is an actual debate that was had by my group of friends.)
** Would you take PEDs if it was the difference between being a career minor leaguer or a replacement-level major leaguer?
** DiMaggio or Mantle?
** WHAT DOES BASEBALL NEED TO DO TO ATTRACT MORE YOUTH VIEWERS?!?!?
** How many at bats would it take you to get a hit off an MLB pitcher?
** What would be your first move if you were hired as the Pirates GM?
** Does anyone in the world have a weirder voice than John Lackey?
** Should there be a hard cap in Major League Baseball?
** Is a four-homer game really more impressive than a perfect game? Remember, there are still fewer four-homer games in MLB history.
** What would Giancarlo Stanton’s stats have looked like if you dropped him into the 1970s?
** Is Mike Trout already a top-25 player all-time? How about top 10?
** Who is your favorite non-Hall of Fame player all-time, and why isn’t it Bernie Williams?
** Which non-baseball professional athlete would have been the best baseball player (John Elway, perhaps?), and just how good would he/she have been?
** What is the best baseball conspiracy theory you’ve ever heard?
** Robot umps, or naw?
** How can the sport spice up the television viewing experience without turning itself into a real-life version of Blernsball from Futurama?
** Who do you enjoy more: the scrappy .260 hitter, or the preternaturally talented .340 hitter?
** Is baseball just a metaphor for America?
** Are we living in the Matrix?
Stick with those, and your bar debates will never, go hungry, again! (Yes, that is indeed a beyond-ridiculously obscure Lion King reference, thanks for noticing.)
Who Is This Player?
Answer at the end of the newsletter (I’m debating formats here, so feedback on how easy/difficult this section is would be appreciated)
Pop Culture Recommendation of the Week
We haven’t done a music rec in a little while, and I’ve been absolutely hooked on Michael Kiwanuka lately. You may recognize the name from him penning songs in both Big Little Lies and Atlanta, but the album I’m hooked on lately has been KIWANUKA, with the song “Rolling” in particular being given the “on repeat for hours” treatment.
Keep You On Your Toes
This is a very funny tweet, but go to the replies for several excellent causes to support:
Quiz Answer
That’s the career of the worst position player, by rWAR, in the current Baseball Hall of Fame: Lloyd Waner. “Little Poison” benefitted from a famous sibling, as well as playing during one of the most offense-friendly and nostalgia-laden eras in the history of the sport. Meanwhile, Barry Bonds and Shoeless Joe Jackson aren’t in the Hall…
Remember to follow along here on Medium for the first few months before I move to the actual email newsletter format.
Feel free to reach out to Jim.Turvey21@gmail.com for any feedback or inquiries.
