Ten Predictions for MLB Playoffs
The “True” MLB Playoffs get underway today, as the Wild Card winners have been determined, and just eight teams remain. It’s the best of the best, the creme de la creme. With that in mind, the MLB Playoffs can, and usually are, one of the biggest crapshoots in sports, so without further ado, it’s time to look really dumb in a month by submitting for your reading pleasure ten predictions, so we can come back in 27 days and all have a good laugh.
The Nationals will be this postseason’s biggest letdown
The baseball narrative hasn’t focused much on the Nationals this season it seems like. The Nats jumped out to an impressively large lead in the division early in the season, and never looked back, almost putting it on cruise control for the final few months. As such, they haven’t really played an important game in months, and it will be interesting to see if they can ramp up for the postseason. With an injured Stephen Strasburg, a dinged-up Bryce Harper, and a Trea Turner who is well past the total number of games he has ever played in a season before, I just don’t see it. It’s not as though Dusty Baker is a managerial guru, and although he did worlds better than Matt Williams, that’s not saying much. The postseason seems like the perfect time to be reminded that Baker is not that great a manager, especially going against a top young mind like Dave Roberts. Dodgers take the NLDS in three games.
Either Clayton Kershaw or Rich Hill no-hit the Nationals in the NLDS
The Dodgers have arguably the two toughest-to-hit lefties on the planet right now, with only the “when healthy” caveat needing to be attached. Well both Hill and Kershaw look healthy and ready to rock and roll as we head into the postseason. Kershaw gave up just two runs over his last four starts of the season, and finished the year with an absurd 1.69 ERA and 0.72 WHIP. Hill wasn’t far behind, either, as he finished the season with an ERA of 2.12 and WHIP of 1.00. We all know Hill is capable of total shutdown of an opponent, as he became the first pitcher ever to be removed from a perfect game, when Dave Roberts had to do so on August 10. Now it’s the postseason. If Hill/Kershaw are tossing a no-no, you can be sure they will get the chance to finish it off. With the Nationals coming into the postseason as the 25th-ranked offense over the past 30 days, they are prime for a complete no-show in one of these games, and with one of the Dodgers lefties set to take the mound in each of the first two NLDS games, expect magic in one of them.
The Cubs finally are the team to get to Madison Bumgarner in the playoffs
Through 97.1 career postseason innings, Bumgarner owns a 1.94 ERA and a record of 8–3. He’s fresh off a four-hit shutout of the Mets in the NL Wild Card Game, and has won the MVP Award in each of the last two playoff series in which he pitched. He’s as close to a playoff god as we have walking this earth, and looks to be quite possibly bullet-proof once the calendar changes to October. That being said, the Cubs were placed on this earth to destroy lefties. Kris Bryant his 14 home runs with a .314 average against lefties this season. Javier Baez, Wilson Contreras and Ben Zobrist all hit over .300 with at least four long balls against lefties this season. Addison Russell hit nine homers in just 139 at bats against southpaws. Even left-handed batter, Anthony Rizzo, left the yard eight times against same-handed pitchers in 2016. Joe Maddon is the king of lineup construction, and he’s been saving his wildest moves for the postseason. Plus Bumgarner has to give up a run at some point, right?!
In fact, the Even Year Magic ends now
Yes, it is 2016. Yes, 2016 is a number divisible by two. Yes, the Giants have won in the past three years that have been divisible by two. No, they are not going to do so again in 2016. For starters (no pun intended), they just used their ace in the game leading up to their NLDS matchup with the Cubs, meaning that Madison Bumgarner will not be available until Game 3, and that will be his only game of the NLDS. Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija are both good pitchers, with Cueto being great, but the Cubs have four great starters of their own, basically neutralizing the pitching half of the equation. And if we just compare hitting and defense — boy oh boy do the Cubs run away with this one. For the season, as a whole, the Cubs ranked third in wRC+ in baseball; the Giants ranked 13th. If we look at the second half of the season, though, the time leading up to this series, the Cubs ranked 7th, while the Giants ranked 22nd. On the defensive side of things, the Giants ranked second in baseball in fielding WAR in 2016. Oh wow, that’s excellent. Except guess who was first? The Cubs. And the difference between the first place Cubs and second place Giants was bigger than the difference between the second place Giants and the seventh place Red Sox. The Cubs 2016 defense was the seventh-best of this decade, with three of those crazy Royals teams above them. The Cubs have the Giants covered in every aspect of the game. That should be enough to counter the Even Year Magic.
Three of the five Giants and Cubs NLDS games go to extra innings
Sure, I just got done saying how much better the Cubs were than the Giants. Sure, the Giants are slightly hamstrung from having to play in the Wild Card. Still, this is the postseason, and there is a lot of luggage for both these teams, and the Cubs luggage is a lot uglier (and full of goats). Cueto v. Lester in Game 1 has the makings of a masterpiece, and you know Bumgarner won’t go down without a fight (even if he has to slog to a final line of 7 IP 4 ER) in Game 3. This series simply has to go five games, just to give the Cubs fans as big a scare as possible.
The home team wins every game in the Indians vs. Red Sox series, meaning Cleveland wins in five
The Red Sox and Indians were two of the better home teams in baseball in 2016, but only Cleveland really stood out in their home/road splits in terms of wins and losses. Where both teams truly stood out, though, was in their offensive output at home versus on the road. The Red Sox and Indians boasted the top two home offenses, by wRC+, during the regular season, and in a series that looks to be defined by who can cross home plate more often, that will be of the utmost importance.
Jose Ramirez is the postseason’s breakout star
Jose Ramirez is far from a household name right now. He is well-known among Cleveland fans, and pretty well-known around die-hard baseball fans, but by the end of October, all shall know his name. The 24-year-old Cleveland Indian does a bit of everything for the team. He has played second base, third base, shortstop, left field and DH in his four seasons with Cleveland, and just keeps getting better and better. With a .312 batting average, 11 home runs and 22 steals in 2016, he started to make a name for himself, but the postseason is when the lights shine brightest. Hitting in the middle of a potent Indians lineup, Ramirez will get plenty of chances to drive in important runs, and he is more than up to the task. Ramirez hit .355 with runners in scoring position this season, and is the perfect mix of confident but not too confident to thrive in the postseason. I like Cleveland to make a run to the World Series, with Ramirez as their leading light.
Big Papi does his best, but it just isn’t quite enough
Speaking of the Cleveland-Boston series, the Red Sox are one of the trendiest teams to pick coming into the postseason, which almost guarantees they will be the biggest letdown. The baseball playoffs continue to throw us for a loop year-after-year, and the World Series matchup almost never lines up with how groupthink says it will at the beginning of October. That being said, there is simply no way David Ortiz fades quietly into the night. I see at least one walkoff for him in the ALDS before the Sox fall in five.
The Jays have far less success late in games against the Rangers this year than they did last year
Michael Baumann wrote a strong piece for The Ringer this week talking about the Rangers bullpen, and how they rely far more on ground balls than strikeouts to get hitters out. Well, guess who just happened to be the second-worst team in baseball on ground balls in 2016 — yep, the Blue Jays. A squad as loaded with sluggers as the Jays are not exactly the type to find the holes in the infield, or beat out the infield hits that are needed to counteract the nature of a groundball-inducing bullpen. Sure, the Rangers bullpen could leave a few flat sinkers over the plate, but I’d be surprised if we get another Bautista bat flip late in an ALDS game in 2016. I like the Rangers pitching and manager advantage to lead them through to the ALCS.
And the big one:
The Cubs break the curse
Sure, this may not seem that crazy on the surface, but with the MLB postseason, picking a World Series winner is a task left for fools. Even as arguably the most dominant team since the prime, Core Four Yankees, the Cubs have barely a one-in-four chance of winning the World Series according to the best simulations out there. That being said, it’s realllllllly hard to see them losing. Their first round matchup with the Giants has been discussed already, so let’s jump ahead. If they face the Dodgers in the second round, we’ve already shown what the Cubbies can do against lefties, which represent, in Kershaw and Hill, the Dodgers biggest threat to Chicago. If it is the Nationals, they are in the same boat as the Giants — simply outgunned in every aspect of the game. If the Cubs get to the World Series, they won’t have home field advantage, but the DH will give Joe Maddon even more flexibility with his lineup, and it’s not as though the Cubs struggled on the road this season, they were 12 games over .500, the second-best road record in baseball. It’s too hard to project out which AL team would meet the Cubs (my pick is Cleveland), but regardless of the matchup, there’s not a single pitching rotation on the AL side of the bracket that can match up with the Cubs. Oh, and outside of possibly Boston, there’s not a single lineup that can compete with Chicago, either. We all know how crazy the postseason is, but this year, 2016, the best team will reign supreme in the end.
