WNBA Betting Preview

Let’s lead with two things, one clearly more important than the other:

• Sports betting is a rather seedy institution that preys on addicts and uses gamification and misleading “promos” to sap people of their money in what is often a losing endeavor. In fact, it’s so rigged that books can just ban the best bettors at their establishments with the only cause being that they are winning too much of their money. It’s a patently absurd industry.
• All that said, it’s SUPER annoying that this industry is paying so little attention to the WNBA, and women’s sports as a whole.

The start of each new sports season is perpetually my favorite time. I have long loved betting (responsibly) on sports, and I have also long had a soft spot in particular for Futures Bets. These are the long-term bets that can be made at the start of a season: An over/under on a team’s total wins for the season, or a prediction of which player will go on to win the scoring or rebounding title that season.

It’s the time when, in theory, the least is known about what will happen, but I have also found it is also the time when those who are truly invested in the sport can find the most significant edge. (This is potentially due in part to the fact that most of the sharpest bettors — the folks who have bankrolls in the millions and often set the market that the rest of us bet on — tend to really dislike the futures market because it ties up more of their bankroll for a long period of time, so they often aren’t there setting the lines for the books.)

Just look a month back towards the beginning of April when the baseball season was kicking off. I was able to write an article with recommended bets varying everywhere from the aforementioned season win totals, to which team would win the most regular season games, to individual player stat lines such as whether a certain player will reach a specific number of hits or home runs in the season.

Now it should be the W’s turn! The season starts in a week, but the WNBA section of each sports betting book out on the market right now is barren! First of all, you have to search high and low to even find the WNBA page, and then when you get there, there’s barely an offer in site. Most books will allow you to be on the outright winner for the eventual postseason (personally, my least favorite preseason bet to make), but that’s about it. FanDuel, at least, instead of offering Championship outrights offers odds on teams to make the playoffs, and allows for a parlay of these offerings. BetMGM doesn’t even offer a single WNBA bet you can make right now. Oh, by the way, you can bet on whether a team will score two or more runs in the second inning of every single MLB game every single day at BetMGM (along with plenty of other absurd offerings).

With all that said (and with the reminder that needs to be in every sports betting article somewhere, that you should only bet dollar amounts that you truly won’t mind if you lose), I’m going to find a few ways to bet the WNBA, because I do (despite my better instincts) love sports betting, have managed to be profitable at it, and would love to manifest these books into offering some more WNBA betting possibilities. So here are a few angles that are out there right now, plus one that may appear as the season comes along.

Bet #1: Dallas Wings to make postseason +200 FanDuel

At first glance these odds would seem to make sense. The Wings made the postseason last year, but neither the Sparks nor the Mystics qualified, two teams considered favorites to return to the postseason this season thanks to offseason acquisitions, or key stars returning from injury.

However, here’s where I see an edge. The Wings have a really high floor. Arike Ogunbowale is certainly their leader, but Satou Sabally seems primed to join her in that post, while Tiera McCowan in theory may finally blossom out of the harsh expectations (and weird minutes restrictions) she faced in Indiana.

I don’t see this team blitzing out to a crazy good record, but I also really don’t see them crumbling. And that’s where I like this bet. The L.A. Sparks seem poised for either a crazy good (hold that thought) or crazy bad season. The Mystics (again, hold that thought) are relying on a MEGA star but one who has a lonnnnng injury history. The Lynx seem like they will never give in to Father Time, but they started to show cracks last season. To me this bet comes down to whether you really think the Liberty (my beloved home town team, keep in mind) are really more than twice as likely to make the postseason as the Wings are, as their odds at FanDuel implies.

Just a reminder, this isn’t a bet on the Wings to make the postseason; it’s a bet on the Wings’ chances to make the postseason being better than 33.33 percent — and I like that edge. The fact that the Dream and Fever are only scant percentage points behind the Wings feels WAY off, and if there was a way to bet those two parlayed to NOT make the postseason, I’d be signing on the dotted line so fast it would make your head spin. But the Wings don’t belong in that tier.

Bet #2: L.A. Sparks to win the title +4000 PointsBet

Ok, ok, I know. Betting on Derek Fisher to do anything good seems foolhearted at best. But I kiiiiiinda like what the Sparks have going on here. I love them buying low on Chennedy Carter, and you just know Liz Cambage is going to be playing pissed off all year. Now there is also a very possible timeline where this team HEAVILY implodes and finishes with the second worst record in the league or thereabouts (part of why I like the Wings bet, again). But if everything comes together, this is a team that could totally steamroll the opposition in the postseason and put together a crazy run. At these odds, I wouldn’t be putting a full unit on it or anything, but as a super long shot, it’s the best available.

Bet #3: Washington Mystics to win the title +2000 Caesars

Ugh, ok with our very limited options for bets, I guess I have to go back to the well of picking a champ. And while I do like a couple of the favorites up top (once again, hold that thought), this is once again a pure value play. There’s no lead-in to a phrase I hate more than “People don’t remember…” buttttt People don’t remember that the last time Elena Della Donne was playing consistently the Mystics were the champs! Oh and when she came back for three game last season, all she did was post ho-hum 48/60/100 shooting splits!!

This is a team that still has Natasha Cloud and Ariel Atkins, along with Mike Thibault at the helm. Delle Donne played 18 minutes in the team’s preseason debut and sat out the second game. The team around her is strong enough that even if they are getting a Delle Donne working her way back into full cyborg mode throughout the season, they can clinch a middle seed and then wreak havoc on the league when she’s fully healthy and getting those extra days off in the postseason. Implied odds of less than five percent to win the title is far too low.

Bet #4: Chicago Sky or Las Vegas Aces to win the title if they start slow

Of the big teams up top, these are by far the two teams I like most. The Sky especially. Both teams lost some key players over the offseason, but in both cases I think, at least for the way the team is set up, it may be addition by subtraction.

In the case of Diamond DeShields leaving the Sky, she has long been one of my favorite players to watch, but the honest truth is she never quite reached the ceiling I (along with many others) had long imagined for her. She settled for far too inefficient shots and often played a touch out of control (which was part of the fun of watching her, in all fairness).

For the Aces, it was inevitable that Cambage and Aja Wilson would be split up once Lambier left town, and I am soooooo excited to see what Becky Hammon will bring to a team that is going to be the 2020 MVP surrounded by shooters and playmakers.

But the price is too steep right now. I don’t love-love playing +350 on the Aces or +500 on the Sky (although I’m suuuuuper tempted on Chicago), BUT here’s a play for you. If either of these teams starts slow, see if the bookmakers overreact. In the past, falling out of those top two seeds in the standings were killer in the W because you suddenly were looking at a potential Do or Die game to keep your postseason alive. But THANKFULLY those games are gone, and with it, comes a chance for teams who come into the postseason with a lower seed having an even better chance of making a run (and remember, Chicago did it last year, Do or Die games be damned).

If either team gets even close to +800 or so — and it’s not because of a season-ending injury to a star — I’d likely hop all over that, so just make sure to keep your eyes peeled.

And hopefully in the meantime, sportsbooks will start to pay a little more attention to the W because I’d be all over some of the more specialized preseason bets that the other sports have, and I imagine many of you would be as well.